Real Vision founder and Macro Guru, Raoul Pal, told his Twitter audience that crypto assets are growing in a rapid pace, much faster than internet in its adoption.
Having spent, significant time on reviewing date from the World Bank and Crypto.com, Pal says the data speak for itself:
“2021 was an accelerating growth year and the Reed’s Law effect of networks built upon networks creating even more exponentiality is clear. But year six after the first five million users, crypto has 295 million participants and the internet had 119 million.
Crypto is growing at 137% a year while the internet grew at 76%. As I always say, this is the fastest adoption of technology the world has ever seen.”
According to the former Goldman Sachs executive, the global crypto industry will easily beat five billion users by 2030:
“Using the 76% growth rate (suggesting a near halving of network growth as network matures), we now get to 5 billion users by 2030.
I.E. it becomes THE dominant source of owning, transferring and recording value and contractual terms global. Wow!”
Pal added that Ethereum (ETH) could possibly pass Bitcoin’s (BTC) market capitalization:
“Each chain creates value for different reasons – BTC for pristine collateral, security and store of value brings large numbers of users transferring large sums of value. Hence why it is the most valuable network.
But ETH has more applications and the transaction value per monthly user is broadly in line with BTC. Thus, if ETH attracts more users over time, it will flippen BTC in market cap (not that it matters as we are comparing apples with oranges! Both have different value/uses).”
Pal concludes with a Bitcoin price prediction:
“Assuming BTC remains one standard deviation below trend it gives a price target of $600,000. If it slows to two standard deviations below trend, then you get a number of around $300,000.
Maybe the regression trend should be taken from 2013 to avoid the very early spike. That gives slower growth and lower targets. That gives trend at $700,000, one standard deviation [above] at $350,000 and two standard deviations at $200,000.”
A thread about Network Effects and how to value digital assets:
For Global Macro Investor, my independent research service, @Remi_Tetot and I spent a long time analysing various on chain data sets to see what were the key drivers of network price and network effects …
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) March 12, 2022
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Source: Igaming
